This week...

Monday 3pm GMT: Traders will be interested in the ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers, as it could give a bit of a “heads up” on what the Federal Reserve will have to do. After all, inflation seems to be returning in the USA, and this will of course greatly influence the Fed, and more importantly for us, the US dollar. Expected: 47.7

Wednesday 3pm GMT: Traders will be watching the ISM Services PMI numbers as well, but typically, this is one that plays “second chair” as far as the ISM numbers go. Having said that, a big surprise could have people putting money to work. Expected: 55.5

Friday 1.30pm GMT: We will get the US Non-Farm Payroll numbers, as well as Canadian employment figures. While this is typically a day that sees a “round trip” when it comes to a sudden move, a reversal, and going back to where we started, there is always the possibility that the number is massively wrong. Expected: 202,000 jobs added, 4.2% unemployment rate.

Overall:

So as this week comes and goes, I anticipate that you will probably see more of a sideways market. While there will always be the chance of some kind of outlier, it is my suspicion that we will see the US dollar give up some of its recent gains, as it is a little overdone, especially against the EUR, GBP, NZD, and AUD. This is from what I can see, a temporary phenomenon. I believe that the USD will continue to be attractive at the moment, although no market goes in a straight line forever. This is a set up that looks likely to offer one of those occasional pullbacks.

Bitcoin will almost certainly either be sideways, or finally break above the $100,000 level. I have been somewhat public with my questioning of BTC and whether or not it ever sees any real word use, but the markets have nothing to do with reality anyways. I cannot tell you how many tech stocks have ran straight up in the air over the last few years, despite the fact that the company has never made a dime. I could be wrong about the end game here, but at this point, it is obvious that BTC is something that will go higher eventually. Wall Street now being involved will be a major factor as well. As for many of the altcoins, well…time is ticking. We have seen some of them really take off. If I held a bunch of XRP, XLM, or others - I would be thinking about taking at least some of those profits.

The stock market will begin the “Santa Claus rally season” soon. This is the time of the year that money managers that have underperformed will start buying anything and everything they can in order to pad their returns for clients, and to be able to say, “Yes, I own NVDA (or whatever), as that’s the hottest stock!” The others who have made money all year know that there are a lot of people every year that have to do this, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The next couple of weeks should be somewhat “normal” as far as liquidity is concerned, but be aware that the back half of the month is very thin, and moves can be difficult to grasp. Ultimately, I typically get a lot smaller in my positions once we get to about December 17th or so.